Climate Bill Passes the House

uscongressThe controversial climate bill passed through the House on Friday and pressure is mounting for the leadership in the Senate to take up the bill. Republicans see the climate bill as too costly for for households and view the bill’s carbon reduction mandates as having a harmful effect on industry.  Some environmentalists are also not in support of the house bill, raising concerns over the reduction targets being too low and giving carbon allowances away to industrial polluters.

It is likely the Senate will vote on a version of the bill by fall, which would then need to be hashed out between the two houses.   The climate legislation is a contentious bill for republicans and industry with many legislators calling global warming an outright hoax. Paul Krugman published an article “Betraying the Planet,” in the New York Times on how majority of the climate bill no votes were from global warming denialists.

In addition, even though the American public wants to see action on climate change, there is growing concern about cap and trade  and the potential cost impacts that will have on their wallets.  Independent research groups have estimated the climate bill will cost taxpayers approximately $175 per year, while industry is estimating much higher costs to American citizens.

The United States is also facing international pressure to have a strong climate policy in place for the United Nations Climate Conference in Copenhagen in December to develop a new Kyoto protocol. It is likely that a national climate bill will be passed by the end of the year, but it is unclear whether the US’ national climate bill will lead the way or serve as an ineffective panacea to our growing climate crisis.

Sea Ice Levels Drop Again…

IcebergRemember back in 2007 when annual sea ice hit its lowest level ever recorded and declined at a rate far surpassing scientists worst predictions? Arctic sea ice during the 2007 melt season plummeted to the lowest levels since satellite measurements began in 1979. The average sea ice extent for September 2007 was 4.28 million square kilometers (1.65 million square miles), the lowest September on record, shattering the previous record for the month, set in 2005, by 23 percent.

This year, sea ice melted at a slower rate,but in May sea ice level’s have almost dropped to levels during the same period in 2007 .   The National Snow and Ice Data center is monitoring sea ice coverage and its latest report and images can be viewed at http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/. It is very likely that this year’s sea ice coverage will again fall below normal, but summer conditions will determine how far we vary from the average.

Bureaucratic climate

193px-noaa_logosvgRecently, Congress decided that we need a National Climate Service (NCS). Since then there has been some discussionthough not too much—about the implications of such a move. For instance, might this not potentially lead to greater politicization of the science? (Though the contrary is presumably one of the reasons it is being sought). Where should it live? In a bureau of its own? The National Academies? The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Goddard Space Flight Center Climate and Radiation Branch, Goddard Institute for Space studies Global Climate Modeling)? National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA; Climate Program, Climate Prediction Center, Climate Diagnostics Center, National Weather Service Climate Systems Division)? Besides, might this not also be a bit redundant given the aforementioned offices, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and various efforts in academia?

Image map of federal agencies involved in climate policy

Climate PredictionClimate DataClimate ProgramsClimate ResearchInternational Web SitesWeather related degree programs

Fortunately, somewhat cooler heads have prevailed. While we will still soon have an NCS, it will be located at NOAA alongside its sister the National Weather Service, and its core shall be formed from two existing divisions. There are also plans for extensive collaboration with universities, which will hopefully depoliticize things as well. Unfortunately, none of this is likely to help some people realize that weather isn’t the same thing as climate.

Warming threats looms larger, but all is not lost

Our friendly neighborhood researchers at MIT’s Joint program on the Science and Policy of “Global Change“—tomatah, tomahto—released updated predictions from their global warming climate model yesterday, and as the images below show, the results are a mixed bag. Although it seems we are now destined to experience one more degree Celsius of warming, whichever path we choose, the range and likelihood of greater increases in average global temperature are much higher if we continue with the status quo. On the other hand, if we adopt serious policies to shift toward efficiency and renewable resources, we may experience less warming than previously predicted; allowing for one degree of increase due to years of inaction.

The pictures represent possible climate impacts as an intuitive gambling wheel. Each image is clickable for a larger view. The top row features the updated model, and the bottom row the original 2001 model. The left column represents outcomes if we do not undertake serious measures to curb emissions, and the right column shows the impact of emissions thus far, and while in transition to a cleaner economy.

P.S. 1 degree Celsius is 9/5 of a degree (~2 degrees) Fahrenheit.

New York Sized Ice Shelf Collapse

iceberg

Yesterday another Global Warming news story made the headlines about a New York-sized ice shelf collapsing off Antarctica— a grave reminder of the growing impacts of climate change.  The Wilkins Ice shelf in Antarctica is destabilizing and this month’s ice loss is the latest of 10 shelves on the antarctic peninsula to retreat with more melting expected.   On a positive note, the US is finally moving forward on Climate policy with the Environmental Protection Agency recent finding that greenhouse gases contribute to air pollution that may endanger public health or welfare, which now moves to a public comment period.

In addition, Congressman Henry A. Waxman and Congressman Edward J. Markey released the American Clean Energy and Security Act that requires  emissions to  be reduced 20 percent from 2005 levels by 2020, while Mr. Obama’s plancalls for a 14 percent reduction by 2020. Both would reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases by 80 percent by 2050.  The bill would also require every region of the country to produce a quarter of its electricity from renewable sources like wind, solar and geothermal by 2025.

The American Clean Energy and Security Act currently lacks sufficienct votes for passage, but with the global warming crisis intensifying and the time horizon for effective action closing, it is imperative that we take local actions to reduce our carbon emissions and also support renewable energy projects in our own communities.

Putting Australia’s natural resources on the grid

Australia

Various reports from our friends Down Under indicate Australians have also been looking at readily available alternatives to the use of non-renewable, greenhouse gas emitting forms of energy. And decided using less energy overall is the first and easiest step to take.

This report from an Warm Home Cool Planet colleague visiting Queensland:

One of the best things I’ve noticed, which is all over the place on TV and billboards, is the ClimateSmart Home Service. It’s run by the Queensland Government to save energy, money and the environment, and is part of the ClimateSmart Living Intitiative. For just $50 a qualified and licensed electrician comes to your home to install a wireless energy monitor for you to keep and conduct a constant energy audit of your home. You also get free water-and-energy efficient shower heads, and up to 15 free energy efficient light bulbs.

There is, however, another reason why are utility company trucks are prowling the streets of Australia’s capital cities handing out free Compact Fluorescent Light Bulbs.

If Australia continues to grow demand for electricity at historic rates, energy retailers will need to generate 70,000 GWh/year in renewable energy to meet the Australian Government’s 2020 Mandatory Renewable Energy Targets (MRET). Penalties will be up to $40 for every MWh they fall short.

With current renewable energy generation in Australia around 25,000 GWh/y, tripling the amount of renewable energy on the grid over the next 1o years will be challenging to say the least. Energy retailers have decided that helping consumers to reduce their energy consumption should dampen overall energy demands,  making MRETs more achievable.

With Obama Administration’s stated intention to focus on energy policy as soon as the current economic crisis subsides, will Renewable Energy Targets soon be enacted here? If they are, look for the price of Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) to skyrocket.

Time to cool off

Red Earth

Our Planet in 2220?

At the Cambridge headquarters of Warm Home Cool Planet we’re well served with local scientific opinions-what with the big brains of Harvard at one end of town and the super-colliding intelligence of MIT at the other. Sometimes the smart folks from Tufts University in our neighboring town of Somerville get overlooked.

That might be changing with today’s Boston Globe article covering the controversial theory expounded by Tufts astrophysicist, Eric J. Chaisson. In a recent paper Chaisson has put forward the theory that even if we solve the environmental problems caused by greenhouse gas emissions, the rate at which we are generating radiant heat through the generation and use of non-renewable energy sources could result in catastrophic changes in the earth’s eco-systems and atmosphere within two centuries.

“What this means for humans is that this is the ultimate limit to growth,” said Dennis Bushnell, the chief scientist at NASA’s Langley Research Center, who urged Chaisson to publish his idea. “As we produce more kilowatts, we have to produce more waste heat.”

Some critics have cautioned that it is impossible to predict what technologies will be developed to handle the problem of radiant heat over the next hundred years or so. And, that if we don’t figure out how to limit the damage greenhouse gases are already causing to our environment, it’s kind of a moot point.

After looking at both sides of this argument, it is the opinion of Warm Home Cool Planet that we need to worry about what’s coming out of the tailpipe first before we consider how hot the tailpipe is.